2007年7月1日 星期日

Sohu's Sensational Comeback





On last Friday, June 29, 2007, Sohu's stock price reached a new 52-week high, at $31.99 PPS, up $1.85 or 6.15%. Sohu's 52-week stock chart looks awesome now, going from $25.79 to $31.99, or 24% one year return.




For longer term, over the last 2 years, Sohu's stock price has gone up from $21.94 to $31.99, or 45.80%, or for a 23.00% average annual rate of return.




It is time for some perspective and ask some interesting questions if you missed the Sohu boat or if you happen to be still on the Sohu. Below is what a fellow investor asked.



Sohu game driving stock? (Not rated) 1-Jul-07 07:56 am
Author: drugsman12 on Yahoo Finance
I wish i had never sold. I used to be most loyal sohu shareholder. But was too scared to hold because of falling market share and piss poor conference calls that offered no hope. 3 bad earnings reports later and stock is 35% higher. Looks like the theory of selling into Olympics will turn out to be a good one.

Reply:
The take-away lesson learned here is to focus on long-term prospects (i.e. Sohu's exclusive sponsorship to 2008 Beijing Olympic), rather than short-term quarter-to-quarter profit and PPS. Sohu's management, specifically CEO Charles Zhang, has significant (27%) ownership in the company. Therefore, management's interest is aligned with the interests of shareholders. If you are a patient long-term and visionary investor, you should see that Sohu is sacrificing short-term profitability for the benefit of long-term shareholder value as well as sustainability and competitiveness of the company. You don't have to look any further than Sohu's list of acquisitions and initiatives to be able to tell that Sohu management is hard at work to do just that.

Acquisitions:

1. Chinaren.com - China's No. 1 Alumnus Network, ala facebook,
2. 17173.com - China's No. 1 online gaming site
3. Focus.cn - China's No. 2 real estate website
4. Goodfeel - China's leading WAP
5. Go2Map - China's leading online mapping service
6. 21 East - Software solution for online music content and distribution management

Internal Development:

1. Sogou.com - Search Engine with 4.6% market share
2. Tian Long Ba Bu - Sohu internally developed MORGG; consitently ranked top 5 downloaded online game since its open beta launch in May, 2007.
3. Sogou PinYin - very successful Chinese character input system.
4. Sohu Blog - has 10 million registered users
5. Sohu Web 2.0 - Sohu passport that connects Chinaren, Sohu email, Sohu photo, and Sohu blog.
6. Sohu media player - provided online video during 2006 World Cup and will provide services for Sohu's Olympic game video delivery and Sohu video blogging product.
7. Sogou's Super Girl Singing competition- expect another event this November.

In conclusion:Sohu management is hard at work to plough back its profits and reinvest in its business for future growth through acquisitions and internal developments. In the long-run it will pay off in terms of increased market share, revenue, and profits. Always look at things in perspective and for the long-term (2 to 5 year horizon)

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